Separate puzzles and mysteries

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When faced with an unclear decision, it's important to ask, "Do I need more data, or more analysis?"

National security expert Gregory Treverton makes a distinction between two kinds of problems: puzzles and mysteries.

• A puzzle is a problem with a missing piece. In a puzzle, we don't have all the information. Things like where is Amelia Earhart's plane, can other planets outside our solar system support life, and so on.
• A mystery is a problem with plenty of information, but no clear solution. How can we solve our education problems in America? Why are some communities in the US struggling to overcome inequality? There are plenty of studies, polls, scores, and all kinds of data.
• Which one do you face? The task for an organizer is to know whether to treat a problem as a puzzle, or as a mystery. A puzzle needs new information. A mystery needs analysis and understanding.

It's easy to fall into the trap of assuming every problem is a puzzle, and thinking, "Oh, all we need to do is commission another field study, or another poll, and get new information. Then we'll know."

But often, we just need to look at existing data. Perhaps there's valuable usage or behavior data from your membership just waiting to be analyzed anew. Maybe it would be helpful to look in the voter file for trends in comparing actual vs projected turnout in the last cycle.

It can be hard work and take some creativity, but the results can save your organization money and bring surprisingly strong insight to your efforts.

Seen an organization treat a puzzle as a mystery, or a mystery as a puzzle? Share your stories in the comments!

Andrew Kling is a campaign consultant and NOI Alumnus

Photo from designbykari, via Creative Commons